Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is facing a high-stakes decision that could shape not only the contest to succeed him, but his own political future.
Former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from California’s gubernatorial race following allegations of sexual assault has further splintered an already crowded and volatile Democratic field. Party insiders have been urging Newsom to step in to help consolidate support behind a credible candidate, or at least impose some order on a race that risks turning chaotic.
But any move to anoint or even subtly boost a candidate carries real danger for the outgoing governor. If his preferred choice falters, Newsom could emerge politically weakened, undercutting his standing ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run.
The result is a classic catch-22 for the governor.
Staying neutral risks allowing the race to spiral, potentially producing a nominee who struggles in the general election or governs in ways that reflect poorly on Newsom’s legacy. But intervening could tether his national ambitions to the fate of a single candidate in an unsettled field.
California Democratic Party leaders are now grappling with a problem of their own making ahead of the 2026 governor’s race: a crowded slate of contenders, many offering only marginally different agendas as they compete to succeed Newsom. Polling underscores the lack of clarity, with no dominant front-runner and Democratic voters splintered across the field.
